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Visualizations

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The Fair Draw

Is the draw really random? The bell says yes

What you are seeing

Each blue bar counts the verses that have been drawn a given number of times: how many were drawn exactly 50 times, how many 51, and so on. The gold curve is what pure chance predicts for that many draws spread over 31,102 verses.

How to read it

If the draw favoured some verses, the bars would spread wider than the curve, or bunch up in a second hump. They don't: the bars sit on the curve. The spread ratio under the picture puts a number on it. A perfectly fair draw gives 1, and anything close to 1 is a fair draw. Choose a month to check a smaller sample; its curve is narrower and lower, as chance says it should be.

Where the data comes from

The same draw log as Seeds and the Randomness Archive, which checks the same draws book by book.

What not to read into it

A verse at the far right of the bell has not been "chosen" more; with 31,102 verses, a few will always land at each tail by chance alone. That is exactly what the curve predicts.